The governing National Democratic Congress (NDC) could lose 29 parliamentary seats in the 2028 general elections, according to an initial forecast from research firm Global InfoAnalytics.
The firm’s inaugural Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) model projects that the NDC will secure 154 seats in the next parliamentary contest, compared with the 183 seats it currently holds.
The opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP), meanwhile, is projected to win 100 seats, according to the preliminary figures shared by the polling organisation.
The forecast also identifies two constituencies as toss-ups, while 20 seats are classified as undisclosed, leaving their outcomes undetermined.
Based on Parliament’s total of 276 seats, the NDC’s projected share stands at 55.8 per cent, while the NPP is assigned 36.2 per cent. The undisclosed constituencies account for 7.2 per cent, with the two toss-up seats representing 0.7 per cent.
Global InfoAnalytics Executive Director Mussa Dankwa shared the preliminary projections, which provide an early indication of how the parliamentary contest could develop ahead of the 2028 elections.
A regional breakdown shows that the 20 undisclosed seats are spread across 10 regions, while the two toss-up constituencies are located in the Ashanti and Bono regions.
The Eastern Region has the highest number of undisclosed constituencies, with five seats yet to be classified. Ashanti follows with four undisclosed seats and one toss-up constituency.
The Western Region accounts for three undisclosed seats, while the Upper East Region has two.
Other regions with one undisclosed constituency each include Bono, Central, Greater Accra, Oti, Upper West and Western North. Bono also has one of the two toss-up seats, alongside Ashanti.
The preliminary forecast offers an early picture of the possible parliamentary balance in 2028, although the undisclosed and toss-up constituencies indicate that several outcomes remain uncertain.
Further details and subsequent projections will be important in assessing how the political landscape develops as the next general elections approach.
