Ghana’s cocoa production is projected to decline by at least 16 percent during the 2026/27 crop season, with the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) attributing the expected downturn to adverse weather conditions, crop disease, illegal mining and the cocoa tree’s natural production cycle.
Responding to questions from Reuters, COCOBOD said the forecast reflects the likely impact of El Niño weather conditions, excessive rainfall recorded in May and June 2026, and the physiological fruit-bearing pattern of cocoa trees, which naturally alternate between high and low-yield seasons.
According to the regulator, the Western and Western North regions have recorded a low cherelle load, referring to the number of young cocoa pods that survive to maturity, reinforcing concerns about lower yields in the upcoming season.
The two regions account for more than half of Ghana’s cocoa production, making their performance critical to the country’s overall output.
COCOBOD explained that the situation has been worsened by the continued spread of cocoa swollen shoot disease, ageing cocoa farms and the growing impact of illegal mining, popularly known as galamsey.
Illegal mining activities have resulted in the destruction and takeover of several cocoa farms, further reducing the country’s production capacity.
The projection comes ahead of the new cocoa season, which begins in September 2026, and follows earlier concerns raised by farmers in the Western and Western North regions, who reported significantly lower pod counts this season.
To reduce the expected losses, COCOBOD said it has intensified efforts to rehabilitate farms affected by swollen shoot disease, particularly in the Western North Region.
The regulator also disclosed that it has expanded nationwide insecticide and fungicide spraying programmes while reintroducing the free fertiliser distribution scheme for cocoa farmers ahead of the 2026/27 crop season.
Ghana’s latest projection mirrors concerns across West Africa, where cocoa production forecasts have also been revised downward.
Neighbouring Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s largest cocoa producer, is likewise expected to record a production decline of more than 10 percent during the next crop season, raising concerns about global cocoa supply.
